The new poll found that 67% of Republicans are very excited about the election, compared to 58% of Democrats and 35% of independents. 56% of independent voters in . 772 days 4 . Ditch the ads, get free stuff. Republican Sen. Ron Johnson faces a Wisconsin electorate that is more negative toward him and more polarizedoverhim than ever. Bjork, whos previously worked for Emilys List and President Barack Obamas Wisconsin campaigns, noted that running as a progressive in the state isnt impossible, pointing to the winning path charted by Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) a decade ago. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Pay no attention to countless testimonies? For this analysis, Franklin and I examined Johnsons popularity with different demographic and political groups: men, women, old, young, liberal, conservative, urban, rural, suburban, etc. The Perks Workers Want Also Make Them More Productive, Then again, a senators PARS score isnt everything. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., is one of the most vulnerable Republican incumbents, with the Cook Political Report rating the Wisconsin race as a toss-up and the race for Pennsylvania's open Senate seat as . "I think when using federal tax dollars, you want to spend those in the most efficient way, and if it's more efficient, more effective to spend those in other states, I don't have a real problem with that. President Joe Biden narrowly carried Wisconsin in the 2020 election. I've done a really good job as Wisconsin's United States senator," he told Milwaukee television station WISN. New Marquette Law School Wisconsin survey finds Barnes with 7-point lead over Johnson in U.S. Senate race, Evers ahead of Michels by 2 points in the race for governor, and Biden approval rating unchanged . Some 95% of Democrats in the poll support Barnes over Johnson, the same as in June, while 92% of Republicans favor Johnson to Barnes, up slightly from 89% two months ago, according to the poll of 811 Wisconsin registered voters conducted between August 10-15. 36% of Wisconsin voters approved of Johnson's job performance and 51% disapproved in the fourth quarter of 2021. Among independents, 56 percent disapprove of Johnsons job performance up 14 points since the third quarter of 2020, before the presidential election while the share with no opinion fell from 28 to 16 percent during the same period. Membership, which includes a host of perks, including an ad-free website, tickets to marquee events like Summerfest, the Wisconsin State Fair and the Florentine Opera, a better photo browser and access to members-only, behind-the-scenes tours, starts at $9/month. Sign up for free newsletters and get more CNBC delivered to your inbox. But PARS reveals why the handicappers arent so sure. FiveThirtyEights partisan lean is the average margin difference between how a state or district votes and how the country votes overall. Becky Can I marry this table, or this, you know, clock? And he doesn't shy away from progressive social issues: His TikTok account, for instance, features posts of him calling for the Senate to end the filibuster, codify Roe v. Wade into law and pass the Equality Act to enact protections for transgender people. Democratic Gov. Angus King and Bernie Sanders are considered Democrats for these calculations. So is the gap between how conservatives and liberals view him. All in all, 39 percent of independent voters now strongly disapprove of Johnson, nearly five times as many as those who strongly approve. Barnes had been a community activist after college, and served in the Wisconsin State Assembly before becoming lieutenant governor. In fact, senators from the party out of power (i.e., the party opposed to the sitting president . Johnson is widely considered the most vulnerable Republican senator up for re-election this year, but some see a path to victory built on Bidens own unpopularity and traditional midterm dynamics that favor the party outside the White House. Senators net approval ratings for the first three months of 2019 relative to the partisan leans* of their states. Sometimes there are these atmospheric waves where it doesnt matter what the campaign does, he said. House Republicans want to repeal Biden's Inflation Reduction Act. According to the latest Morning Consult poll, which covered the first three months of 2019, Manchin had a +5 net approval rating. (from left) Raphael Warnock, D-Ga., Catherine Cortez Masto, D-Nev., and Ron Johnson, R-Wis., are all facing . Tony Evers, who is down from 50% to 45%. Stacker has compiled data ranking all of them based on their popularity and approval rating. That will be essential in a year when, based solely on partisan lean and generic congressional ballot polling, youd expect a Republican to win their home states, all else being equal. But his rating among anti-Trump voters has steadily worsened, going from minus-24 in 2016 to minus-45 in 2020 to minus-58 this year. A Democratic governor with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARG of +9 (2+7 = 9). Democrats have zeroed in on Johnson's seat as they fight to hang onto their razor-thin Senate majority. Toward the bottom of the list are five governors running for reelection whose approval ratings dont look as strong as they seem after taking partisan lean into account. Adding to the bad news for Johnson is that his approval rating continues to be at an all-time low with just 37% of registered voters saying they approve of him and 46% saying they disapprove. Incumbent Sens. If the same state had a Republican governor with the same approval rating, his PARS would be -5 (2-7 = -5). Unlike this trio, there are some senators whose electoral fates probably do hinge on the presidential race. Hi. Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection Don't Look Great. But the decline hasnt been even across groups. McConnell manages just a -13 net approval rating despite inhabiting an R+23 state. That gap is significantly bigger than it was from 2013 to 2019. Check out all the polls weve been collecting ahead of the 2020 elections. to hit the Biden administrations failed response to the COVID-19 pandemic, crime rates and the rising cost of living all issues that give Democrats heartburn. Johnsons slippage has been minimal among pro-Trump voters and voters who describe themselves as very conservative. It has been very steep among Democrats and liberals. Governors running for reelection in swing states also have some very different PARGs that explain why some of them are vulnerable this year, while others probably dont have anything to worry about. Johnson (Republican Party) ran for re-election to the U.S. Senate to represent Wisconsin.He won in the general election on November 8, 2022.. Johnson was first elected to the Senate in 2010 when he defeated incumbent Sen. Russ . Indeed, Democrats are more than twice as likely to strongly disapprove of Johnsons job performance than Republicans are to solidly back it, at 63 percent to 27 percent. Democratic Governor Laura Kelly ran for re-election to a second term. Reagan's job approval ratings in the first years of his term were hurt by the bad economy, and the last years of his administration were marred by the negative . Senator, Johnson won one of them, getting 45% versus 42% for Lasry. 2023 Morning Consult, All Rights Reserved. Any off-year election is going to be a referendum on Joe Biden, which is why its going to be a really difficult year for Democrats in places like Wisconsin, said former Wisconsin radio host Charlie Sykes, an early proponent of Johnson during his 2010 bid whos turned critical of the senator and the Trump-inspired GOP. Around a quarter of Wisconsin Republicans (24 percent) disapprove of his job performance. One reason may be that voters are more polarized in general. Douglas Rooks, a Maine editor, commentator and reporter since 1984, is the author of three books, and is now researching the life and career of a U.S. Chief Justice. Everss PARG is just +1, suggesting perceptions of him are strongly dependent on partisanship. Some 83% of Republicans polled said they are absolutely certain to vote in the November general election, over 82% of Democrats and 66% of independents. But a lot has changed in the last few months. An older poll, conducted last September by Clarity Campaign Labs for Barnes' campaign, showed the Democrat tied with Johnson. Raphael Warnock, Mark Kelly, Maggie Hassan and Catherine Cortez Masto all have PARS scores of at least +7, suggesting that they are capable of outperforming the base partisanship of their state. Johnson, a Republican and staunch ally of Donald Trump, enjoys the approval of 45% of Trump votersthough a considerable 31% of Trump voters . Nathaniel Rakich is a senior elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight. In that sense, Johnsons political future may depend on maximizing turnout from the partys pro-Trump base while still winning over some anti-Trump Republicans and independents. Besides touting Republican wins on regulatory relief, strengthening the military and tax cuts, Johnson. GOP Love for Johnson Exceeded Only by Democratic Disdain. R+23. Partisan Lean (5). Democrats have zeroed in on Johnson, who is backed by former President Donald Trump, as they fight to hang onto their razor-thin Senate majority. Only 6 percent of employees able to do their jobs remotely > Less popular senator: Republican Sen. Ron Johnson > Q4 2019 approval rating: 41.0% > Least popular House member: Republican Rep. Bryan Steil, 1st District He backed a decision by Oshkosh Defense a large Wisconsin-based manufacturing company and one of his largest campaign funders to locate over 1,000 jobs in Spartanburg, South Carolina, instead of his state. Finally, the two governors with the worst PARGs are Democrats Kate Brown of Oregon (-25) and David Ige of Hawaii (-41). Each has a PARS between +1 and -3, indicating that their net approval rating is in line with their states partisan lean. One month ago, Biden had an approval rating of 42.2 percent and a disapproval rating of 52.2 percent, for a net approval rating of -10.0 points. Pollapalooza (249) Approval ratings of the incumbent Democratic Governor, Ralph Northam, have dropped 10 points to 49%, which is still better than the average drop of 14.38% for Democratic governors. George H.W. ", Johnson has also refused to fight to locate jobs in the United States instead of abroad. Barnes, the current lieutenant governor of Wisconsin, leads Johnson 51% to 44%, up from a narrow two-point lead he held in June, when polls showed Barnes had the support of 46% voters in the . These are some takeaways from a detailed analysis of nearly a decade of polling on Johnson by the Marquette Law School. As Sen. Ron Johnson weighs whether to run again, his embrace of Trump's anti-democratic campaign to overturn the election results already has angered some mainstream Republican allies, and is poised As Sen. Ron Johnson weighs future, Trump ties take a toll Republican Sen. Susan Collins is another senator who hopes to overcome the partisan lean of her state (Maine is 5 points more Democratic-leaning than the nation) to win reelection. More: The fight over Ron Johnson's US Senate seat will put Wisconsin back in the national spotlight in 2022. We're pretty sure you're a member and you're definitely not signed in. Since 2015-16, Johnson's popularity rating has gone from minus 50 to minus 73 with Democrats; from minus 54 to minus 76 with liberals; from minus 31 to minus 45 with nonreligious voters; and . He has lost significant ground in the past few years with key voting groups such as women, moderates, independents and suburbanites, including voters in the once lopsided GOP stronghold of the WOW counties outside Milwaukee. Johnsons rhetoric on these issues has attracted a great deal of attention and controversy. In Marquettes polling, most voters including about one-third of Republicans are skeptical toward Johnsons statements about COVID. But Democratic Gov. Quarterly poll conducted Oct. 1-Dec. 31, 2021, among a representative sample of 10,496 registered Wisconsin voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-1 percentage points. Senator Ron Johnson's . RCP House Ratings, Map. Will they go back to the Republican Party because of Biden, or go to the polls and think, Yeah, I dont like Biden, but Ron Johnsons too crazy for Wisconsin?, he wrote announcing his re-election campaign was a good start in appealing to both the GOP base and the 6 to 7 percent who stand in the middle of the Wisconsin electorate as true swing voters. Mandela Barnes in the general election in Wisconsin, NBC News projected. Johnson has come under fire in recent months for his votes to cut taxes for himself and his very rich donors while backing "most of" National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Rick Scott's 11-point "Rescue America" proposal which includes a large tax hike for more than 100 million lower-income and retired Americans and fighting against efforts to make child care more affordable. While other states may have difficulty motivating Democrats to turn out, the vitriol that Johnson inspires in Democrats in Wisconsin will help to drive turnout, said Wisconsin Democratic strategist Tanya Bjork. And how effective is what they plan to do to whoever the eventual nominee is?. Approval Ratings (130) But Barnes' campaign has largely focused on economic issues, highlighting his middle-class upbringing in Milwaukee and contrasting it with Johnson's status as one of the richest members of the Senate. In . . trails Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes by seven points his largest deficit in a key race that could determine which party controls the Senate according to a poll from Marquette University Law School released Wednesday, as Johnson faces several political controversies. Plus 18 to minus 5 among voters in denser, metropolitan suburbs. Fifty-one percent of voters disapprove of his performance, including 56 . Find many great new & used options and get the best deals for 1978 Topps Baseball (501-726) Pick from List EX-NM at the best online prices at eBay! Right now, the Democrats are trying to steal this election blah, blah, blah!. By contrast, Baldwin's fellow Senator Ron Johnson elicits a much less favourable net approval rating of -22%, since 49% disapprove and 27% approve of Senator Johnson's overall job performance. Governor Mandela Barnes, and even tighter in the Republican primary for governor, with businessman Tim Michelsin a near-tie with former Lt. A Democratic senator with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARS of +9 (2+7 = 9). The question is: What will those suburban swing voters think? This includes Sens. As they have for years, three northeastern, blue-state Republicans lead the way: Govs. In fact, the only current senator with a lower approval rating is Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who has infamously blocked hundreds of popular pieces of legislation. In Marquettes last poll, 36% of voters viewed him favorably and 58% viewed him unfavorably. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, Mark Warner of Virginia and Tina Smith of Minnesota are electorally vulnerable. Steve Sisolak of Nevada also has a distinct personal brand that could help him weather a tough reelection campaign in purple Nevada. Biden Job Approval in All 50 States. Yet, even though his net approval rating has long been underwater, he easily won reelection in 2020 thanks to Kentuckys overwhelming Republican lean. Just ask Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who for years has had the worst PARS score in the country (currently -54). The question is whether or not hell focus on the winning message, whether or not people will respond, or whether those negative numbers are so baked in, he said. Eli Lilly CEO announces it will cap out-of-pocket costs for its insulin at $35, GOP bill would fund security grants for 'pregnancy centers' only if they oppose abortion, House Republicans vote for repeal of climate-related investment regulations, Rep. James Comer criticizes U.S. attorney for not investigating Biden's dead son, House GOP members interrogate Biden administration efforts to address environmental racism, Fact check: No, the Biden administration is not trying to ban gas stoves. Johnsons decline in popularity since 2019 has occurred among almost all groups. Franklin is professor of law and public policy at Marquette Law School, and director of the Marquette Law School Poll, And we see that downward movement across most of the groups we looked at. But the electorate has hardened around him. His net favorability improved during the campaign year of 2016 from net negative to net positive. Previous Morning Consult polling has shown Johnson near the bottom of the pack in terms of base support among Republican senators running for re-election this year. This ad will close automatically in 15 seconds. (That said, he did win by only 20 points, several points worse than the states partisan lean, suggesting that his unpopularity did have some effect. Get this delivered to your inbox, and more info about our products and services. If the same state had a Republican senator with the same approval rating, the PARS would be -5 . The . This is less true for governors, however. I think Johnson is in a strong position from the standpoint of being the incumbent and not having a primary, Hitt said. 1990 FLEER. Voters do not. Ron Johnson Approval Rating. Johnson's campaign had raised more than $17 million by July 20, compared with $7 million raised by Barnes though Barnes' campaign said on Aug. 1 that it raised $1.1 million in just a week, after his Democratic rivals united behind him. In Wisconsin, Sen. Ron Johnson - who aligned with Trump's election challenge publicly while reportedly admitting privately that Biden won - starts the 2022 cycle with one of the weakest approval ratings (61 percent) among GOP voters. @eyokley, Download Fastest Growing Brands 2022 Report, Sen. Ron Johnson speaks about the origins of COVID-19 at a press conference in Washington, D.C., in June 2021. A Democratic senator with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARS of +9 (2+7 = 9). Tired of seeing banner ads on Urban Milwaukee? But hes got to execute on a winning message, and if we look at the numbers and the data, we know he hasnt been executing on a winning message.. Over the nine months previous to this, Johnson has averaged 35% favorable and 44% unfavorable ratings in the MU polls, the lowest since Marquette began polling about him in 2013. ), could be Democrats best hope to flip a Senate seat in November. Global Business and Financial News, Stock Quotes, and Market Data and Analysis. Wisconsins senior senator should get a boost from traditional midterm dynamics, where the party out of power is helped by animosity toward the party in the White House. And hes not the only Democrat with a lot of cross-party appeal; in fact, the 16 senators with the highest PARS scores all caucus with the Democratic Party. Johnson said it was not his "job is not to micromanage a private company" and that putting the jobs in a different state would actually "benefit Wisconsin, Oshkosh, and Oshkosh workers. She pointed to tax breaks he supported that benefited big donors to his campaigns and his comments about vaccines and the 2020 election as chief examples. Bemis, a major plastics manufacturer, had appointed Howard Curler as its CEO in 1978, and during the first several years of PACUR's existence, Bemis was the business' sole client. He welcomes comment at: drooks . The governor got 48% of the vote to 41% for Michels, 48% versus 40% for Nicholson, and 48% versus 41% for Ramthun. No matter who wins the 2020 presidential election, they wont be able to get much done if their party doesnt also win the Senate. Buy It Now. We havent seen that kind of recovery yet in this cycle. Barnes, the current lieutenant governor of Wisconsin, leads Johnson 51% to 44%, up from a narrow two-point lead he held in June, when polls showed Barnes had the support of 46% voters in the battleground state, which voted for former President Donald Trump in 2016 and President Joe Biden in 2020. So, its not a short-term fluctuation, but a strong trend, said pollster Charles Franklin, who provided the data used here. * Partisan lean is the average difference between how a state votes and how the country votes overall, with 2016 presidential election results weighted at 50 percent, 2012 presidential election results weighted at 25 percent and results from elections for the state legislature weighted at 25 percent. But while Johnson is unpopular, few are ready to declare his chances dead on arrival as he revs up his third Senate campaign in a state Trump lost by just a sliver in 2020. How Daniel Kelly worked with the GOP to fuel election denialism. and 7% for Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson. The majority of senators have PARS scores in the single digits, indicating that their approval rating is largely determined by the partisanship of their states. Johnson's campaign has lashed out at Barnes as a "career political activist" who is too far left for the purple state of Wisconsin, which Trump carried in 2016 and only narrowly lost in 2020. The world has been led by intensive and extensive waves of darkness from renaissance all the way down to the Covid crisis. Shaheen has a +21 net approval rating, Warner has a +19 net approval rating and Smith has a +18 net approval rating. Sykes agreed the Democratic Party has what it takes to pull off a victory, but warned that a lot of what happens in November may be out of their control. 2023 CNBC LLC. Well over half (57 percent) of voters in the state . Libertarian Seth Cordell and independent . Cant fix stupid or true believers. If the magic of 2016 (for Johnson) was to convert dont knows to favorables, this year it looks like people who didnt have an opinion are being converted into unfavorables, said Franklin. Shaded rows denote senators whose seats are up in 2020, excluding those senators who are not seeking reelection. Kelly, on the other hand, does have a brand distinct from the national Democratic Party, but its an open question whether she can get enough Kansas Republicans who approve of her to take the extra step and vote for her as well. When the dates . Fewer people dont know him or are undecided in their views of him. The Supreme Court Not So Much. Jared Polis to be vulnerable in a Republican-leaning midterm in D+6 Colorado, but his net approval rating is 16 points higher than that, giving him a nice cushion in case the national environment puts his state in play. But a comparison between then and now also points to the challenges Johnson faces. Since 2015-16, Johnsons popularity rating has gone from minus 50 to minus 73 with Democrats; from minus 54 to minus 76 with liberals; from minus 31 to minus 45 with nonreligious voters; and from minus 19 to minus 32 with urban voters. With a PARG of +13, Democratic Gov. The question is: What will those suburban swing voters think? Tony Earlagainst his four potential Republican challengers, with Evers leading all four and Kleefisch running closest to the governor. The souring has been steepest among independent voters in Wisconsin. Ronald Reagan, the nation's 40th president, became one of the nation's most revered public figures in recent years, a distinct turnabout from the average job approval ratings he received while in office between 1981 and 1989. 2022 Senate Elections (51) 'He doesn't understand medicine is a science': Ron Johnson escalates 'guerrilla war' against medical establishment, Here are the 11 Democrats in Wisconsin's 2022 U.S. Senate race who are seeking to unseat Ron Johnson, Your California Privacy Rights / Privacy Policy. For all these reasons, some nonpartisan analysts think Johnson has a better than even chance of getting reelected. Help assure the future of citys fastest growing publication. How Every Senator And Governor Ranks According To Popularity Above Replacement, reinstate former President Donald Trumps account, What The 20 Republicans Who Voted Against Kevin McCarthy Have In Common. Tommy Rife, of Cedar Bluff, Va., is charged with one count of misdemeanor assault and battery, according to Richlands Police Chief Ron Holt. The two-term senator has real political strengths: incumbency, an enthusiastic GOP base and the political tailwinds of running in a midterm election against the party of the president. The top 10 Senate seats that are most likely to flip to the other party. Independent Sens. He has refused to take responsibility for his unpopularity, claiming in January that it is all the news media's fault. Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes. According to a, As hate crimes against Asian Americans have, Billionaire Elon Musks quest to buy Twitter isnt yet official, but if he is successful, he said this week he will. (That last figure is based on a four-poll sample of 339 WOW-county voters, with a margin of error of 5 percentage points). Senators, behind Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania (36%) and Mitch McConnell of Kentucky (33%), according to an April 2022 report from Morning Consult. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan is somewhere in the middle, with a PARG of +6. The reelection races of Sens. Joe Zepecki, a Milwaukee-based Democratic communications strategist, said other issues like Russias aggression in Ukraine, the Supreme Courts handling of Roe v. Wade and the uncertain trajectory of the pandemic could also change the climate come November. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) insisted Sunday that his low approval ratings are not at all his fault and that he is "not a polarizing figure." Johnson made the comments during an interview with journalist Adrienne Pedersen on Milwaukee television .
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